The Mac's 'Troubling Low' Market Share
Frank Fox - 2008.04.29
Bookmark in del.icio.usLow End Mac Reader Specials
Memory To Go Special: MacPro 8 Core Memory 4GB kit $192 / 2GB kit $109. MacBook Pro / MacMini / iMac Intel Core2 DUO 2GB $44 1GB $23--Free shipping available.
Download Typestyler, still the Ultimate Styling Tool for Internet, Print and Video Graphics. Works great in Classic with a Native OS X Version on the way. Free Tryout: www.typestyler.com
LA Computer Company: LA Computer Company: Specials on AppleCare, Apple Displays, MacBooks, iMac's, MacBook Pros, Laptop and iPod accessories and more. Apple A/C Adapters for laptops starting at $25.00 Call 1-800-941-7654 or Click Here.
OtherWorld Computing: Better than new Batteries for iPods NewerTech NuPower, up to 20+ Hours! Complete with Tools from $19.99. Online videos. Professional installation available.
Mac users can finally play Party Poker for Mac. Not only that, they can also learn how to play PokerStars for Mac.
Laptop Hardware Provided by TechRestore - Overnight Mac & iPod Repairs.
Compare products like desktop computers, laptops, and LCD TVs side by side! All the information and reviews to make the best purchasing decision for a new cell phone GPS products or MP3 players. The Ciao network makes searching products easy for you.
NEW MacPro Memory 800Mhz With Apple Spec Heat Sink 2GB Kit $104 / 4GB Kit $184 / 8GB Kit $362 Click to Maximize your Macs...
For those who don't know him, Paul Thurrott is a sycophant for Microsoft. He likes to find any excuse to sling mud at Apple for the delight of his fans (and of course for the pleasure of MS.) Recently on his website, he was displaying the market share numbers for computer sales. This, of course, shows that Macs are only a small part of overall PC sales, and that is supposed to put us in our place. Mac sales are growing, but the remain only a fraction of the market.
To the best of my knowledge, Paul is correct about Apple's market share. But if this is true, why has Apple stock price gone up 2000%?
No, that's not a typo. Hewlett Packard and Dell sell five-to-six times as many computers, yet their stock price is so-so. Are all Wall Street investors just a bunch of mindless Mac loving zombies? What does Apple have that HP and Dell lack?
Do you see that little dip that happened at the end of 2007? That's when the recession news hit hard and investors started selling off. The Mac hating websites used that dip as an excuse to start beating up Apple for not being successful enough.
That was a bad time for short-term investors, but in the grand scheme it was nothing more than a blip.
Thurrott is so nice that he has been displaying Apple's low market share for the years 2007, 2006, 2005, and 2004. Let's pull those numbers together and see how they compare to the stock market trend.
2004 2005 2006 2007
Mac Sold 3.22 4.74 5.66 7.76
Increase 32.0% 16.1% 27.2%
PC Sold 174.00 208.00 234.00 270.00
Increase 16.3% 11.1% 13.3%
From 2004-2007, worldwide PC sales increased 155% - not bad for an industry. Macs increased 237%, which is 82% more growth. I would have to say that the growth of Mac sales is incredible. Most companies that have high growth suffer a lot of growing pains and generally screw something up.
Truthfully, the growth in Mac sales has been overshadowed by sales of iPods, iTunes, and now iPhones. Apple managed 237% growth on Macs while at the same time dominating a couple of other markets without any big problems. That is what investors like - fast growth, and especially the potential for much more. Every year that Apple has managed 30% or more growth, their stock price did the best.
How will Mac sales look if 30% growth can be maintained? For comparison we'll be optimistic and assume that PCs continue at 15% growth.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mac Sold 3.22 4.74 5.66 7.76 10.09 13.12 17.06 22.17 28.83
Increase 32.0% 16.1% 27.2% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
PC Sold 174.00 208.00 234.00 270.00 310.50 357.08 410.64 472.23 543.07
Increase 16.3% 11.1% 13.3% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Mac/PC 1.9% 2.3% 2.4% 2.9% 3.3% 3.7% 4.2% 4.7% 5.3%
It looks like we'll have Thurrott's message of small market share for years to come. Even as Mac sales doubles every three years, there are still going to be a ton more PCs sold. Neither Vista nor XP are going away any time soon, and Microsoft will be making billions of dollars from all those suckers who buy PC crap.
Still, there's no reason to despair on the Mac side. A company growing at 30% each year will not be going out of business as long as they keep tight controls on costs. Lucky for us and investors, Steve Jobs is a skinflint. He's hired some very capable people to make this happen. Investors, who as a group don't care about Macs vs. PCs, find plenty of news to be positive about Apple.
As Thurrott could see if he bothered to look at his own numbers, growth in Macs is a lot more interesting than for PCs.
So, Mr. Thurrott, I hope you enjoy XP and Vista, because you and the rest of the PC world are going to be stuck with them for the next 2-3 years at least. You can bet that Apple will have many new things for Microsoft to copy as Leopard matures and Apple readies for the next cat. Apple is proving to be the more agile company with many new products fueling growth.
The billion dollar question isn't if Macs are going to grow at 30%, it is the possibility for even high growth rates as Vista continues to get bad reviews and users start looking for an alternative.
Disclaimer: This individual does own Apple stock as well as Apple
computers. 
Recent Stop the Noiz Columns
- 140 million copies of Vista sold (yawn), 05.09. It sounds like a lot, but over 85% of Windows users are staying away from Vista. 20% of Mac users have embraced Leopard in one-third the time.
- Vista just one reason for growing Mac market share, 05.01. With 200 million PC owners replacing their computers this year, Apple has a real opportunity to increase its growth rate.
- Advice for Dell and HP: Innovate, don't imitate, 04.24. HP and Dell may lead the market, but they will decline unless they stop building boring Windows PC or trying to copy Macs.
- More in the Stop the Noiz index.
Recent Content on Low End Mac
- Value of old Power Macs, old computers in school, Panther or Tiger on Pismo, and more, Dan Knight, Low End Mac Mailbag, 05.12. Also new 20" Penry iMac vs. 24" Santa Rosa and great results with a low-cost external SuperDrive.
- From Mac tinkerer to full time Mac user, Mike Tessitore, My Turn, 05.12. It started with buying old Macs on eBay and tinkering with them. But when the Windows PC died, the author learned that Macs could do everything he needed.
- Free Time Machine Editor does one thing and does it well, Alan Zisman, Zis Mac, 05.12. If Time Machine's habit of backing up every hour is impacting your work flow, this free utility gives you control options that Apple didn't build into Time Machine.
- Low End Mac's Compleat Guide to Mac OS 9, 2008 edition, Charles W. Moore, Miscellaneous Ramblings, 05.12. Declared dead by Steve Jobs 6 years ago, Mac OS 9 remains fast and stable, but Classic software hasn't kept up with Web changes. What Macs support OS 9, where to buy it, and how to update it.
- Mac of the Day: Classic II/Performa 200, Oct. 1991 - The last b&w compact Mac put a 16 MHz 32-bit CPU on a 16-bit bus.
- List of the Day: Apple2list supports Apple II users.
- May 13 in LEM history: 99: Cost effective upgrades for 68030s - 02: Free POP3 email - Penguin lockup mystery - 03: Safari and the Internet experience - Niners to Xers: Apple's Switch campaign for Mac users - 05: Xbox 360 specs put Power Mac G5 to shame - Which older Macs are good candidates for Tiger? - Tiger on an iBook - Does Mac mini kill the used Mac market?
- $199 iPhone coming?, iPod not a Walkman, crosswalk danger, iPods taking over cars, and more, iNews Review, 05.09. Also the iPhone is a second-rate phone, iPhone 2.0 may introduce handwriting recognition, Kensington battery pack and chargers, new iPhone apps, and more.
- Apple's eMate still a great tool in the classroom, Tommy Thomas, Welcome to Macintosh, 05.09. How one teacher equipped his classroom with eMates with his own money - and plans to keep using them as long as possible.
- More G4 upgrade advice, secure disk wipes, 500 MHz iMacs with Tiger in action, and more, Dan Knight, Low End Mac Mailbag, 05.09. The importance of securely clearing your hard drive before you pass on your Mac, Pismo and closed lid mode, G3 iMacs in the classroom, and more thoughts on upgrading G4 Power Macs.
- MacBook sales explode, MacBook Air reviews, several new hard drives, and more, The 'Book Review, 05.09. Also silver-zinc batteries may outlast lithium-ion, Bell Aliant bundling MacBook with Internet access, notebook drives benchmarked, bargain 'Books from $150 to $2,699, and more.
- Apple tops in tech support, Penryn iMacs and Psystar Open Computer reviewed, and more, Mac News Review, 05.09. Also the iMac philosophy, OpenOffice 3.0 going Mac, MozyHome backup comes to Macs, weather in the Dock, and more.
- Best Power Mac G4 deals, Low End Mac Deals, 05.09. Used Cube, $479; 400 MHz PCI, $70; 450 AGP, $105; 733 DA, $150; 867 QS, $200; 1 GHz, $250; 450 dual, $295; 1 GHz dual, $400; 1.42, $600; more.
- Best 15" MacBook Pro deals, Low End Mac Deals, 05.09. Used 1.83 GHz Core Duo, $1,100; 2.16, $1,295; refurb, 2.2 Core2, $1,449; 2.4 Penryn, $1,699; 2.5, $2,149; new 2.2, $1,525 after rebate; 2.4, $1,685 a/r; more.
- Best iPod touch deals, Low End Mac Deals, 05.09. Refurb 8 GB '08, $249; 16 GB '07, $329; '08, $349; new 8 GB '07. $269; '08, $280; 16 GB '07, $330; '08, $369; 32 GB, $475.
- More links in our archive.
About LEM | Support | Usage | Privacy | Contacts
Have a question?
Ask an expert!
Navigation
Used Mac Dealers
Apple History
Best Used Macs
Video Cards
Email Lists
InfoMac's Low
End Mac Forum
Favorite Sites
MacSurfer
MacMinute
MacInTouch
MyAppleMenu
InfoMac
Macs Only!
The Mac Observer
Accelerate Your Mac
RetroMacCast
PB Central
MacWindows
The Vintage Mac
Museum
DealMac
DealsOnTheWeb
Mac2Sell
ramseeker
Mac Driver Museum
JAG's House
System
6 Heaven
System 7 Today
the pickle's Low-End
Mac FAQ
Abandonware
Petition
Mac vs. PC Info
Affiliates
The Apple
Store
Mac
Connection
MacMall
TechRestore
MacResQ
ExperCom
Crucial
Memory
batteries.com
Advertise
