Way back when, Apple stock was in the toilet, trading at $11 a
share.
Don't look now, but the earnings forecast that came out on Tuesday
brought investors close to that same spot. On Wednesday, AAPL closed
at 14-5/16. Not a pretty sight.
So where to from here? The last time Apple was at this point,
the iMac rode out of the blue
(Bondi blue, it would seem) to take the company to the top. Is there
any product in the pipe now that will ratchet up the value of Apple
shares and keep the "Pray" magazine covers at bay?
I'm certainly hoping that Apple will have something big to show
consumers over the next year. I'm waiting for OS X, but it looks
like the latest and greatest operating system from our favorite
computer maker had better be iMac-like when it's finally
introduced.
Is that a tall order? The iMac has an extremely attractive
exterior that looks good on billboards, buses, commercials, and even
your desk. It's easy to touch and invites people to come on over for
a look. Unfortunately, OS X, as appealing as it is, does not have
these strengths. Slap the OS on the side of a bus and it will look
interesting, but I suspect that people won't get nearly as excited
about clicking on icons as they did about the sexy lines of the
iMac.
For example, the BMW is a darn nice looking car. It attracts the
eye and beckons you to take a lingering look. While the interior is
attractive, it's not what most people buy the car for. It's the
outside that counts in most cases. The iMac is the outside. OS X
is the inside. See where I'm going?
Even if OS X is the most reliable, easiest to use, and stable
OS to ever come out, people just aren't going to get as excited about
it as they would about the iMac. Relying on OS X to bring about
a massive increase in sales is like BMW relying on a new interior to
make the M3 a bestseller. Can you see something like that
happening?
Apple, of course, has the advantage of being able to sell
OS X as an individual upgrade for people who are interested.
That can help the bottom line somewhat. But realistically, I can't
see OS X having a huge, immediate impact on Apple's bottom line. In
the long run, of course, things could be different. As the OS proves
itself and more apps come out, Apple could start making serious
inroads into the business area. That's the long-term hope.
But for short-term action, I'm hoping Apple has an ace up their
sleeve at Macworld. Place your bets now.
Stephen Van
Esch is the founder and president of
the
E-learning Foundry, an online training
resource for Mac users. Steve loves the Mac and is doubly bilingual,
since he's also fluent in Windows and French.
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