This article was originally published on
osOpinion
"sometime before the
iBook shipped," which makes it over a year
old. It is reproduced here by permission of the author.
In light of Apple's recent stock surge, I am seriously considering
investing in Apple
stock. It has made substantial (to put it mildly) gains in the
last year and seems poised to go even further.
Apple's stock, according to some, is "undervalued" and is making
its way back into the Wall Street's good books.
So I'm left wondering: Is this a good time to buy? Will Apple
stock shoot ever higher with the release of the consumer version of
OS X, the P1 and maybe, just maybe, a revised iMac? Am I willing to
make the bet?
My worst fear is that the market, like a fair weather friend, will
abandon Apple at the drop of a hat. They are all too willing to leave
market darlings out to dry if they perform exceedingly well but not
up to expectations. Compaq and Intel are fine examples.
Where does this leave Apple? After an extraordinarily rough ride,
I suspect that investors will quite willingly pummel Apple stock at
the first sign of weakness. If Apple fails to exceed expectations
even once, the financial pundits will start speculating about Apple's
downfall all over again.
"In light of Apple's recent weak quarter, what's your
recommendation John?"
"Well, Apple has had a good run these last few quarters but we are
now seeing if they can hold the momentum. This current quarterly
result may be the first indication that they can't."
Heck, that scenario could play itself out even if Apple met
outrageous expectations.
There's no doubt that no matter how well Apple performs, it has a
long way to go to regain any sort of long-term commitment from
skittish investors. Can investors shrug off a bad quarter at Apple as
"a bump in the road" or will they head for the hills?
I don't think that the current Apple stock love-in is anything
other than a one-night stand. I'm not convinced that investors will
stick around to make breakfast.
Further Reading
Blame the Cube?, Dan
Knight, Mac Musings, 10/2. Apple stock tanked on Friday. People
quickly pointed fingers at the Cube. But should we really blame
the computer?
Stephen Van
Esch is the founder and president of
the
E-learning Foundry, an online training
resource for Mac users. Steve loves the Mac and is doubly bilingual,
since he's also fluent in Windows and French.
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