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Analyzing the Analyst's
Analysis
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Seems there's more hand-wringing regarding Apple's computer market
share. Andrew
Neff, a Bear Stearns analyst, calls Apple's market share loss
"worrying."
I've little use for most analysts. Except for a rare few, most do
a magnificent job of underperforming. In fact, our national paper
runs an interesting contest every year where an object or animal is
used to pick a stock. A group of the best analysts willing to put
their reputation on the line also pick a stock. The newspaper reviews
the performance of the stocks a year later. Invariably, the object or
animal winds up in the middle of the pack. One year, a baby orangutan
from the local zoo was the
challenger and placed fifth out of nine participants. Another
year, a windup Santa toy took first
place.
Aside from making amusing reading around Christmas time, this
firmly establishes the healthy habit of ignoring most advice from
analysts.
"Neff is concerned that Apple's 'Trojan Horse' strategy -
persuading iPod users to buy Macs - isn't working. Though iPod
and iPod mini have sold well, Neff is concerned this has not
translated into strong Mac sales, particularly of G5 Power Macs."
Macworld
In this case, I'm a little uncertain how Andrew came to his
conclusion.
I've never really believed that the iPod was designed to drive Mac
sales. I believe the iPod was designed to create a new revenue stream
for Apple. When things don't look so good in your home market, it's a
good idea to seek profits elsewhere. Of course, this can end in
disaster. In this case, it didn't, and Apple has realized handsome
profits and cultivated a dominant position in a new market. By any
measure, this is a success.
Andrew's comment underlines some confusion in the market regarding
Apple's status. Is it a computer company? Is it a consumer
electronics company? Is it a software company? And how on earth can
we fit this square peg into the round hole we love so much?
Here's what analysts should be looking at: Is the company
profitable? Can the company sustain profitability over the long
term?
The answers are yes and yes.
Does an analyst become worried because Playstations may be
affecting Vaio sales? No.
Apple is in a good position right now. While computer sales can
always be better, it remains in the black. If Apple decides it's time
to sit back and smell the roses, dear Andrew may have a point. He's
assuming, though, that Apple will stand still in the market and keep
feeding off the sales of increasingly outdated products.
This may be a possibility, but I feel that Apple's engineers and
designers are squirreled away somewhere designing the next great
thing that will keep generating money for the company. While I may
not think it's possible, if the Mac's market share should ever
shrivel into nothingness, Apple will have other products available
that will pay the bills.
While I'd love to charge a high hourly rate for this advice, I'd
say that Apple will remain in good fiscal health for quite awhile
yet.
Stephen Van
Esch is the founder and president of
the
E-learning Foundry, an online training
resource for Mac users. Steve loves the Mac and is doubly bilingual,
since he's also fluent in Windows and French.
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