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I can honestly say that this might be Apple's last big chance to
press forward and gain new users.
I think Apple can gain new users easily enough with its product
offerings, but at this point they may be getting a huge helping
hand from their old rival (now the ugly aunt that they must pucker
up and kiss at family reunions) Microsoft.
Microsoft, of course owns the majority of the desktop OS market.
Over 90% of the world's computers run some version of Windows.
Unless you've had your head stuck in the sand over the last year,
you know Microsoft is prepping its latest OS, Windows XP.
XP is Microsoft's grand vision to tie the OS (XP) to the
software run on it (Office, Windows Media Player) to the
information on its users (credit card, surfing habits, buying
habits) to a giant database to connect and track it all
(HailStorm).
The above explanation is, of course, a generalization. I think,
however, it captures the essence of Microsoft's new strategy.
The problem that Microsoft will run into is that this new vision
takes unprecedented control over the users data and desktop.
For example, recent
reports indicate Windows Media Player will not play
MP3s. There are millions of MP3s floating around hard drives all
over the world. Essentially, Microsoft removes the user's ability
to play a vast store of music that was painstakingly accumulated.
Of course, third party MP3 players should work, but many users
simply use what comes with the system.
Arguments aside, new users will likely use the WMA format
supplied by Microsoft. They will also likely rip songs in WMA
format (because you can't rip MP3s with the software shipped with
XP, and installing a third party encoder may be more trouble than
it's worth for new users). Let's see now, free software on the
desktop that's convenient and accessible. Air supply cutoff
anyone?
This little detail in itself may not turn users off. Having
personal data stored elsewhere and controlled by Microsoft
might.
Enter Hailstorm. Enter your user data and vital stats (which
users are obviously too stupid to be trusted with), and Microsoft
will keep it safe for you. Sound a little ominous, trusting
personal data to a corporation who's main drive (like all
corporations) is profit, not consumer well being?
Enter Passport, now integrated with Internet Explorer 6.
Passport essentially tracks your surfing habits as you cruise from
site to site. Correction - it only tracks users from Passport
sanctioned site to Passport sanctioned site. In a nutshell,
Passport sets a cookie that "remembers" where you were previously
on the Passport network and measures your time and surfing habits.
This is valuable information for marketing companies looking to
pitch products.
Microsoft can dictate which music format you can use, how your
information is stored and shared, and track your surfing
habits.
Big Brother anyone?
So how does Apple benefit from all of this? Simple - Apple can
position itself as an alternative to the all seeing, all knowing,
all controlling Microsoft.
My theory is this. Microsoft thinks it has its users by the
throat. Its market share is so huge that it thinks it can now
dictate to consumers its agenda, instead of consumers telling
Microsoft what they want. This, I think, is a dangerous game.
Many users value their privacy and computing independence. They
want their information to remain in their control (which a
Microsoft rep will tell you is the case with Hailstorm). They also
want to remain anonymous on the Web and part with personal surfing
information only if they choose.
Positioned correctly, Apple (and alternative OSes) could
capitalize on the "We know what's best for you," attitude in
Redmond.
The time is coming, I think, when a remake of 1984 would be in
order. As Microsoft slowly but surely centralizes its products and
removes control from the user, a flying hammer from Apple might
just be the remedy for a bad case of Microsoftitis.
Stephen Van
Esch is the founder and president of
the
E-learning Foundry, an online training
resource for Mac users. Steve loves the Mac and is doubly bilingual,
since he's also fluent in Windows and French.
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