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In the old days of MacWeek, Apple used to send up "trial
balloons" to see how the market might respond to a new product.
Today we have websites that exist only because of Mac rumors,
and they've been at the forefront of the "flash iPod" craze.
As always, this column is based on no inside sources.
Instead let's try to think like a marketer. How would you sell a
lower-capacity iPod to the public?
Low Cost
First off, it has to have a lower price. No matter how much
smaller or cooler it might be, if it costs more than the US$249
iPod mini, not too many people are going to line up to buy
it.
Compared to hard drives, flash memory is expensive. A 4 GB
Compact Flash card sells for $370-400 these days, but the Hitachi
4 GB MicroDrive sells for just $220 configured for use in
a Compact Flash slot. It kinda makes you wonder how Apple can sell a
4 GB iPod mini for $249 and make a profit.
Looking at the market, you can buy a SanDisk 256 MB MP3 player for
$70, a 512 MB player for $115, and a 1 MB model for $154. There
are no 2 GB models for an obvious reason -- they'd cost
at least as much as the iPod mini.
Remember that we're dealing with Apple here, and that means a
premium price that people are willing to pay. If others can
sell 1 GB digital music players for $150 and up, Apple will
probably sell the same capacity for $199. A 512 MB model might reach
the market at $149.
Should we hold out for 256 MB at $99? While Apple could do it, I
don't think there's enough profit at that price point for
Apple to go that low.
And, unlike at least one website, I don't think Apple will cut
costs by leaving the screen off the flash iPod. That's just
silly.
Low Capacity
Apple markets the iPod mini as storing up to 1,000 songs on
a 4 GB hard drive. That means a 1 GB flash iPod would store
250 songs, 512 MB would have room for 125 songs, and a 256 MB model
would only have room for 60-65 tracks.
Would you spend $100 for a device that only stored 60-65 songs
when you can buy an MP3 CD player with 160 track capacity for about
the same price? That's another reason I think a 256 MB player would
be difficult for Apple to market.
Small Size
The iPod mini showed that people are willing to pay a premium
for a smaller package, and a flash iPod could be even smaller
than the iPod mini. Still, I don't think size alone is going to drive
the flash iPod market.
Solid State
While I believe lower cost and a smaller size will be selling
points that help offset the lower capacity of a flash iPod, I don't
think they are compelling reasons in and of themselves. There
should be a more tangible benefit.
There is -- flash memory. You can run some flash memory devices
through the laundry, drop it, and sit on it without destroying
it. Hard drives are relatively fragile, and that's part of the reason
for the iPod mini's aluminum case.
Better yet, you can jog with solid state memory and not worry
about damaging a hard drive. This is the tangible benefit, which
leads me to the conclusion that Apple will christen the new model the
iPod sport.
Instead of spending $249 for an iPod mini and adding a
waterproof housing, the iPod sport could be water resistant
from the box. Scuba, snorkeling, skiing (snow and water) are just the
tip of the iceberg.
My guess is that we'll see the iPod sport in underwater
yellow as one of two or three color options. Red and blue are my
other guesses -- no white or brushed aluminum this time, just very
solid plastic.
Sure, Apple will sell the iPod sport to people who aren't into
sports, just like the auto industry sells SUVs to people who
never take them off road. And I think the iPod sport will be as hot
as SUVs were before gas prices went up, especially if Apple offers
1 GB at $199.
LA Computer Company: Specials on AppleCare, iMac's, Apple Batteries and Apple A/C Adapters. Also Great prices on Used Apple Computers. Call 1-800-941-7654 Click Here.
OWC: Burn DVDs, DVD-DL, CDs, DVD-Ram - FAST! Superdrive upgrades from OWC starting from $31.99 with options for nearly every Mac. Models with Lightscribe, Blu-Ray too!
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A Calfiornia assemblyman wants to make incandescent light bulbs illegal - but that's just the beginning. His next target: CRT monitors and TVs.
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Truth of the matter is, the Asteroid Project didn't exist to produce a viable product, but as a way to shut down rumor sites.
Mac of the Day: Centris 610, Feb. 1993 - This was the Mac we used when we started Low End Mac in 1997.
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Tomorrow's Solid State Drives and Notebooks, Dan Knight, Mac Musings, 09.04.
Flash drives are great but have some shortcomings. Some thoughts on building better SSDs and notebooks to use them.
Best 12" PowerBook G4 Deals, Low End Mac Deals, 09.04.
Used 867 MHz Combo, no APX, $490; 1 GHz, $550; SuperDrive, $625; 1.5 GHz w/o APX, $660; w/APX, $675.
Best Mac mini Deals, Low End Mac Deals, 09.04.
Used 1.25 GHz G4 SD, $549; 1.42 Combo, $409; new 1.83 Core2 Combo, $569 after rebate; 2.0 SD, $769 after rebate.
Best 17" PowerBook G4 Deals, Low End Mac Deals, 09.04.
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Best eMac Deals, Low End Mac Deals, 09.03.
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Best MacBook Air Deals, Low End Mac Deals, 09.03.
Refurb 1.6 HD, $1,499; new, $1,690 after rebate; refurb 1.8, $1,699; new, $1,919 a/r; refurb 1.6 SSD, $2,099; new, $2,294 a/r; refurb 1.8, $2,299; new, $2,400 a/r.
Psystar Strikes Back, Countersues Apple, Frank Fox, Stop the Noiz, 09.03.
Psystar is trying to paint Apple as a monopoly and force it to license the Mac OS.