Thinking Through Macworld Expo Rumors and
Speculation
Dan Knight
and
- 2003.01.02
It's already January, and the rumor sites are not bursting with
Apple rumors. Here are recent ones found around the Web:
Faster G3s
Nick dePlume has been mentioning GOBI,
the code name for a faster member of the PowerPC 750fx family. The
750fx, currently used in the iBook, is already designed to reach
speeds of 1 GHz, but in the world of computers it's always safe
to predict faster processors.
Of course, IBM has been making 1.3 GHz processors for some time,
so there's no technological barrier. There is, however, a strong
marketing barrier. Until the entry-level G4-based eMac, iMac,
PowerBook, and Power Mac reach the 1 GHz level, it's unlikely
Apple will market a 1 GHz (or even faster) G3-based machine.
We have to agree with dePlume that the future of the G3 in Apples
line remains cloudy, although Dan had some
encouraging things to say about the G3 and Quartz Extreme earlier
this week.
That said, such a CPU could be a real hot item in the upgrade
market.
EOL for 15" G4 iMac
MacOS Rumors posted a reader email from December 21 claiming that
Apple was preparing to phase out the 15"
flat panel iMac in favor of the wider screen 17" display,
possibly adding a 19" model at the top end.
With Apple trying to get rid of the G3 iMac and pushing the
17" eMac as the entry-level
consumer model, we have mixed feelings about this rumor. The 17" iMac
offers more than just a larger screen; it also has a 1440 x 900
display vs. 1024 x 768 on the 15" model. That's plenty of real
estate, so we don't give any credence to a 19" iMac. Anyone who needs
that big a screen should simply buy a dual processor Power
Mac G4.
We suspect that Apple will continue offering a 15" LCD iMac as
their entry level model, making the 17" display standard on the more
costly G4 iMacs. We cannot see Apple phasing the smaller iMac quite
yet.
That's It?
It really is. Apple-X.net
has some interesting speculation, but no rumors per se. Our thoughts
on their speculation:
- 70% chance of some Mac using a 1 GHz G3. With the
G3 iMac dropped back from 700 MHz to 600 MHz, don't expect it
there, leaving the iBook as
the only place Apple might use a faster G3. And with the iBook
just speed bumped two months ago, we don't anticipate any changes
this soon. We give this 0% probability for this month's Expo. We
would welcome an 800 MHz G3 iMac.
- 60% chance of Apple launching an ad campaign pushing
OS X. Well, it depends on what they mean. Apple is
already pushing OS X in Mac magazines, and the Switch
campaign is definitely pushing the whole Mac package. We think
it's unlikely that Apple will ever promote the OS alone via mass
media; Apple has always been about the whole widget.
- 60% change of a new mouse and keyboard. We'd both like
to see Apple go wireless, add some media keys to the keyboard, and
put a second button and scroll wheel on the mouse. But odds of
Apple actually producing more functional input devices - the
cynic within each of us pegs that probability at 20% and hopes
Apple will surprise us.
- 70% likely that portable Macs with Bluetooth and DDR
memory. Sorry, we don't anticipate any new 'Books at the Expo.
We do expect to see Bluetooth integrated into the next iBook and
PowerBook models, but not until the March to May time frame.
Further, the current G4 processor doesn't fully support the double
aspect of DDR memory, so we don't anticipate Apple going to DDR
memory unless it's more cost effective or there's a revised G4
that can take full advantage of it - and never on a G3
iBook.
- 80% chance of the top-end iMac being shown at 1 GHz
and that the 17" LCD will be standard on all but the
low-end iMac. We'd like to go out on a limb and predict a
1 GHz iMac is almost certain. We agree that Apple going to a
17" LCD on all but the entry-level iMac makes sense.
- 1 GHz eMac? If the iMac reaches that mark, we think
it's 90% likely that the eMac will follow.
- 60% likelihood of slightly faster Power Macs. The last
revision was announced in August, so the timetable is right. It's
really a question of Motorola being able to provide faster G4s in
quantity. We'd say it's 90% likely that Apple will announce faster
Power Macs in January (although possibly not at the Expo),
although the top-end model might not actually ship until February
or March.
- 50-50 chance AppleWorks 7 will be announced and be
100% compatible with Microsoft Office files. That would be
nice. That would be incredible. That would be a real kick in the
teeth to Microsoft after the way they moaned about poor Office v.X
sales. We'd love to see it, but although we know that Apple
can do it, we don't think they're ready to make such a
gutsy move against Microsoft.
- 90% likely that Apple will stop selling LCDs smaller than
17". That's petty much a no brainer - unless Apple decided to
go after the education and/or home market with a modular desktop
Mac. Apple can't sell enough low-cost LCDs profitably to keep
doing so. The day of the 15" Apple-branded LCD is already
numbered.
- 90% chance of QuickTime 6.1 being released with improved
support for third party standards. Neither of us follows
QuickTime developments too closely, but this seems
reasonable.
- 80% probable that iChat will support video conferencing
among other improvements. Why not - everyone else is doing
it.
- 80% likely that many of the iApps will be updated. A
safe bet.
- 40% chance of a new Apple-branded digital device. We'd
love to see an Apple-branded PDA or digital video recorder. The
iPod proved that Apple can market to the masses and sell to those
with money. But whether we see an iPhone, iCam, iPalm, or iVo -
Jobs only knows. However, with Apple's iPod success, we think it's
at least 50% likely that Apple will announce another consumer
device at the Expo.
- 90% likely that a new version of iTunes will support
Rendezvous. Now that's an intriguing idea, but we wonder if
Rendezvous has enough support yet for this to make sense. We think
it's less than 50% probable.
- 20% chance of a 2 GHz or faster Power Mac G5. Knowing
Motorola, we'd put that at a fat zero. Apple-X.net is being
optimistic.
- 30% odds of a hybrid cellphone/PDA from Apple. We don't
think that's at all likely.
- 40% chance of a color 30 GB iPod? Only if Apple adds
PDA capabilities to the iPod and has a reason to add color.
- 30% likely to see a G4 iBook. As noted above, we don't
believe there will be any new 'Book announcements in January.
- 50-50 chance of an Apple-branded browser. Mozilla is
open source, Chimera is getting a vocal following, and this would
be yet another way Apple could reduce its dependence on Microsoft.
However, we don't think Mozilla is quite ready for Apple to brand,
so that leaves us with an in-house project. Unlikely in light of
the Sherlock developments seen in the Jaguar release. It might
happen eventually, but we'd give it a 20% chance of even being
shown on stage at the Expo.
In closing, we do expect to see the iMac and eMac speed bumped at
the Expo, suspect a Power Mac improvement later in the month, and
don't anticipate any changes to the iBook or PowerBook for another
two to four months (March at the earliest, May at the latest).
We strongly suspect that Apple will update several iApps and
release a new consumer device, but we can't predict what that might
be. Dan has his fingers crossed for an Apple alternative to TiVo and
Replay TV. Anne thinks it's more likely that Apple will team up with
another company to produce a webcam or PalmOS device. Time will tell.
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